It doesn't matter if the very earth you’re walking on is
soaked with oil or that one can fetch oil by simply turning on a tap. Without a
peaceful nation, visionary leadership, respect for rule of law and order, credible
institutions backed up by a robust constitution, all these resources are simply
nothing! South Sudan has none of these and the crisis unfolding in Juba must therefore
not come as a surprise.
The case of South Sudan following a successful referendum to
secede from the North is akin to gifting an amateur with a car and still expect
them to drive passengers competently to their destination in a highway full of
ups and downs.
The problem(s) of South Sudan dates several years back when the country was still a monolithic state
with Arabs dominating key government positions while the southerners -
consisting mainly of the blacks - fighting this dominance in an attempt to
restore what they called justice. Rebel groups like SPLA/LM led by the late Dr.
John Garang have been at the forefront of this struggle which culminated in the
signing of a comprehensive peace agreement popularly known as the CPA brokered in
Kenya in 2005 and ratified by both the current president of the Sudan Mr. Al
Bashir and the late Garang himself. As part of the pact, SPLA/LM was supposed
to share power with the Khartoum government, with the issue of autonomy and cessation
to be determined at a later date in a referendum. As things stand, southerners
overwhelmingly voted for autonomy which led to the formation of the current
government which is less than 2 years old.
So when exactly did the rains start beating South Sudan? In my
opinion, since day one. The Juba government is a victim of its dark past. Majority
of its leaders are former guerrilla fighters who spent years in the bush
fighting the Arab-dominated Khartoum government. When the South officially
broke away from the North, there were no structures or institutions in place to
guide government operations; therefore, with the assistance of foreign
organizations, the Juba government haphazardly set up some structures to get
the government going while they put their house in order. The army was largely
constituted of the same guerrilla fighters who – by their current behavior - only
seemed to have changed their uniforms to official fatigues yet their allegiance
is still divided and pledged to an individual. The current president Salva Kirr
Mayarndit maybe the commander-in-chief but it appears he doesn't control the
whole army battalion. The former vice president whom he sacked back in July Mr.
Riek Machar from the minority Nuer group, appears to be controlling at least half
of the soldiers. These are the same soldiers accused of staging a coupe
following his sacking and the subsequent disarmament operations targeted at the
soldiers perceived to be loyal to Machar.
What South Sudan needs is a fresh start. For starters, the
leadership ought to ensure peace and stability is restored pronto as a matter
of priority. The country also needs to
recruit and train a fresh, professional and disciplined army, devoid of blood in
their hands. Where these army would come from I don’t know but what I know for
sure is that as long as these rogue soldiers who fought in the bush are still
part of the national defense apparatus, instability will remain part and parcel
of the youngest nation in Africa at least in the foreseeable future.
Secondly, the country should invest in institutions and
structures and not individuals. Reforms targeted at the judiciary, the civil
service and a professional police service should be expedited. The government
should also open up space for political parties and democracy to thrive. The civil
society should be allowed to grow in order to ensure checks and balances while keeping
the government accountable to the people of South Sudan. The education system
should be reformed and made accessible including technical institutes which
will allow especially the demobilized soldiers acquire new skills in order to
tame the temptation to return to the bush. Once all these things are up and
running, South Sudan can now begin to focus on exploiting oil and other
resources in the country in a massive scale.
